ELECTION PREDICTIONS!

It's a simple thing, folks. Below each state and its electoral award. If RED, then it's Kerry. Black is Bush.
Total for Bush =301
Total for Kerry=237

Popular vote, Bush-54.8
Kerry-45.1
More comments Below the state talley.

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
California 55

Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
D.C. 3
Florida 27

Georgia 15
Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
Illinois 21
Indiana 11

Iowa 7
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Maine 4

Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6

Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4

New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 31
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3

Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4

South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5

Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 11
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3

Now it would seem to yon casual observer that the wise I is predicting a “blowout” for Bush what with calling the popular vote with almost 10% over Kerry. If this be the definition of a blowout, so be it.

And the wise I also understands that my predictions are out of line with the popular polls of this day so I will offer my justification hence.

First, the Osama tape is going to have a last minute effect on this election. Which bridges over to what effect the whole election is going to have on the voter in that booth as I predict. Yon voter, I predict, when faced with the levers, punch-holes, video screens, offering the choice of Bush or Kerry, is going to go for Bush.

It’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it. I don’t care what that voter told the poll people and I don’t care how the pundits waxed. It’s my belief that there is a hardcore group of former peaceniks, radicals, bohemians, whatever you want to call them, that will vote for Kerry but most Americans, no matter there social status, race or creed, are going to opt for the President.

I also think the black vote is going to skew way more towards the President than is currently expected. African Americans are as much against gay marriage as most white Americans, many more are homeowners than were in 2000 and they die in terrorist attacks same as any color.

Also, rumor has it that the Repubs are sitting gleefully as they rub their hands. Their internal polls are heaving greatly and have since this past Thursday. Scuttlebutt has it that exit polls of advance voting are showing the President up by 15%.

Finally, how romantic is it that one lone Blogger accurately predicted the landslide the Old Media and Pundits didn’t see.

I refer you to two web sites. The Washington Post’s Crystal Ball article has predictions by various other pundits for comparison to those of the wise I.

And RealClearPolitics.com lives up to the promise of its web site name. State by State, poll by poll, any way you want to look at it, it will be on this site.

Finally, I am very probably wrong. Yet if I don’t have the courage to put out there what I really believe, than what kind of Blogger am I?

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