Election Predictions VS Election Actuals

So How Did I Do?

I refer yon readers to my election prediction missive posted 10/31/04 Election Predictions.

Now let’s analyze how I did:
Actual Popular Vote

Bush=59,018,939
Kerry=55,436,312
Bush % of popular votes: 51%
Kerry % of popular votes: 48%

Predicted Popular Vote by Kaitlyn’s Grandmother:

Bush % 54.8
Kerry % 45.1%

Diff Kaitlyn’s Grandmother vs actual=3.8% over-predicted for Bush. Or 3,702,539 more popular vote predicted for Bush than actual.

For Kerry, 2.9% under-predicted for Kerry. Or 3,816,994 less popular vote predicted for Kerry than actual.

Actual Electoral Votes

Bush=286
Kerry=252

Predicted Electoral Vote by Kaitlyn’s Grandmother:

Bush 301
Kerry 237
Diff Kaitlyn’s Grandmother vs actual=15 more electoral votes predicted for Bush than actually received.
For Kerry, 15 less electoral votes actual for Kerry than Grandmother predicted.

States wrong by Grandmother’s prediction:
Predicted Colorado for Kerry-went to Bush…add 9 to Bush prediction, deduct from Kerry prediction.
Predicted Maine for Bush-went to Kerry..deduct 4 from Bush prediction, add to Kerry prediction.
Predicted Wisconsin for Bush-went to Kerry…deduct 10 from Bush prediction, add to Kerry prediction.
Predicted Minnesota for Bush-went to Kerry….deduct 10 from Bush prediction, add to Kerry prediction.

Doing the math as indicated above and one arrives from Grandmother’s predicted electoral votes of Bush at 301 to Bush at 286; Kerry at 237 to Kerry at 252. Or….the arithmetic adjustment from predicted to arrive at the actual electoral vote for each candidate.

Voila. The above is truth in advertising, fair and balanced, yada, yada. Which means I was wrong on four states out of 50 and off
3% on my popular vote predictions.

All of which is, ahem, waaaaay better than any of the big pollsters got it. With big media following the pollsters all over the place. The general consensus was that Bush would either lose or it would be a very close race. Neither was the truth.

Grandmother did it better is what I’m saying here.

By the way, is Zogby and CBS proudly comparing their predictions against the results this morning?